Turbulence rises as halving looms

Between Friday and Sunday, total crypto assets rose from $2.76 trillion to $2.84 trillion. March gave way to April in a hand-off that easily could be described using the old saying, "out like a lamb." 

Bitcoin has been bobbing up and down near $70K seemingly going nowhere fast, down 1% in 24 hours. 

But look again from a wider angle, setting the forest view apart from the trees, and you'll find volatility lurking.

Specifically, Glassnode in the past week has picked up stark readings of 30-day BTC realized volatility (RV), with the measurement reaching as high as 63.76%, its highest level in 21 months. The RV metric tracks the standard deviation in an asset's returns from the mean over a set time period, with higher values reflecting spiking price risk (Decrypt).

Andy Bromberg, CEO of Beam, called a bout of late March BTC volatility a kind of “crisis of faith” among traders torn over the possibility that the halving premium is already baked into the equation.

Usually, record highs come after the quadrennial miner rewards reduction event, not before.

Not to be outshone, Bitcoin Cash (BCH), 14th-largest crypto, ahead of its own little-heralded halving event, has surged 12% in the past 24 hours.

As of 7:32 a.m. (EST), BCH was $668 with eleven cents to spare. That's its highest level in three years.

Additionally, putting a spotlight on winners, Core DAO (CORE) is up huge in the past day but precisely what may be driving this surge remains unclear; probably it has something to do with a recently announced incentives program connected with the burgeoning "BTCfi" sector which would benefit BCH, the 58th-largest token, described as a lightweight version Bitcoin.

Speaking of which, Litecoin leapt out of March in lion-like fashion, spiking from $88 only seven days ago to more than $100, for a weekly gain of about 17%.

LTC, 22nd-largest coin in terms of its total market capitalization, is up 2.5% in 24 hours, hitting close to $105.

It had a halving this past summer. And, just recently, it came to light that a major U.S. regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), in court papers has classified LTC as a commodity (CoinMarketCap).

Bitcoin is down, slightly, to start a new day/week/month/quarter (does anybody really know what time it is?) but it nevertheless remains within striking distance of the crucial $70K mark.

Meanwhile, cat coins are falling out of favor on this Easter Monday. Whether they land on their feet remains to be seen. Catcoin (CAT) itself fell 26% in 24 hours. Copying it are cat memecoin category leaders LMEOW and MEW, each down about 30%. (Note, this preceding item was not an April Fool's Day joke. Rather, just the result of a quick glance at CoinGecko's loser board).

Among Top 100 digital assets, the biggest declines can be found on the charts of the dog meme set, with WIF and FLOKI each down 7%-9%.

Because volatility comes in waves, there can be measurable calm periods embedded within broader pockets of more extreme than normal undulations, such as right now, these past few days, with nearer-term volatility measurements showing low ebbs, as opposed to the 30-day realized volatility (RV) mentioned above.

However, as any ardent volcano watcher can tell you, the most serene conditions can change instantly.

Be on guard between now and the BTC halving, expected around April 20.

Implied volatility in forward-looking derivatives markets remains sharply elevated (above 75%).

Jun-Young Heo, a trader at Singapore-based Presto Labs, told CoinDesk that perpetual futures funding rates remain inflated as open interest connected with BTC and ETH positions hit $35B.

“The markets may again return to a more volatile regime,” Heo said.