Ripple declares victory

Ripple's nearly four-year legal battle with the SEC is finally over. Almost.

While a settlement has been reached – a judge yesterday ruled on remedies, ordering the consensus-ledger-technology company to pay $125 million in civil penalties – the regulatory agency is expected to appeal.

“This is a victory for Ripple, the industry and the rule of law," said Brad Garlinghouse, Ripple's CEO, in a post on X. "The SEC’s headwinds against the whole of the XRP community are gone.”

It was about 4 p.m. (EST) on Wednesday when traders first got news of the judge's decision. XRP, the token closely associated with Ripple and whose issuance was at the heart of the SEC's allegations, immediately shot up more than 20% to $0.63 while trading volumes tripled.

CoinDesk tracked data pointing to tens of millions of dollars, most of it long biased, entering the XRP futures markets. 

As of early Thursday morning, XRP was $0.61. Only days ago, XRP had fallen to $0.43 during the crypto-wide sell-off.

The surprise finding (all things considered) yesterday morning was Bitcoin bounding toward $58K. This move seemed more than an expected rebound off a frenzy of overselling Sunday into Monday, during which time BTC dipped below $50K. 

Suddenly, the coveted $60K mark seemed right around the bend as risk-on appetites appeared robust, at least looking at equity index futures. 

But a risk-on-again rally switched off. The Dow finished down a few hundred points as of the end of yesterday’s session. BTC never did hit $58K. As of today at 8:13 a.m. (EST), per CoinGecko, the largest crypto sat at $57,260, glumly flat over 24 hours.

Decrypt has a report on "new whale" selling pressure. ("Old whales" apparently continue to sit tight).

Meanwhile, that other major cryptoasset, Ethereum, confronts some spot-price pressures of its own. According to Tokens Unlock, some $350 million worth of ETH is set to enter the market throughout the day today and another $800 million eventually could follow as validators cash in tokens and rewards, possibly looking to sell (Cointelegraph).

ETH has been faltering for the past three weeks. The second-largest coin recently hit a five-month low below $2,200. ETH at last check was wrestling with the $2,500 barrier, down 22.5% over the past week.

One of crypto's longest-running legal dramas came down to a final, epic battle of remedies motions. The SEC asked for a $2B fine. Ripple thought $10M was more like it.

Judge Analisa Torres in the end calculated Ripple's liability at $125M.

Torres also ordered Ripple to stop any further violations of securities laws.

The regulatory agency's initial complaint, regarding Ripple's issuing of a security unlawfully, was filed in December 2020. Ripple denied the charge, insisting XRP was not a security.

Last summer, Ripple enjoyed a partial victory via a summary judgment in which Torres ruled that while Ripple’s institutional sales of XRP constituted an unregistered securities offering, programmatic sales, involving exchanges, did not.

At that time, XRP spiked from below $0.50 to nearly $0.80 before returning to the half-dollar level, hugged tightly for the better part of the past year.

Looking ahead, XRP volatility could test nerves in the short-term, cautions CryptoPotato.

Nevertheless, XRP enthusiasts are banging on. An analyst named Doctor Profit described the court ruling as “a massive bullish event." CrediBULL Crypto, another pundit on social media, said the decision set the stage for “a mega run.”

XRP's all-time high was $3.40 reached in January of 2018. Envisioning the eventual dawn of XRP ETFs, and also lots of announced collaborations between Ripple and financial players, Doctor Profit, per CryptoPotato, laid out a couple of upward scenarios over the next 12 months. 

In the worst case, XRP only barely exceeds its current ATH, getting to at least $4. In the analyst’s best-case scenario, XRP goes to as high as $20.