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*Trading activity in the past 24 hours on the Uphold platform, as of 8 a.m. 1st December 2023.
The combined total of buy and sell percentages can exceed 100% due to customers who engage in both buying and selling the same asset within the 24-hour time frame.
All investments and trading are risky and may result in the loss of capital. Cryptoassets are largely unregulated and are therefore not subject to protection.
What’s up
Bitcoin Hitting $40K 'Top Of Mind' As Historically Robust Month Begins
The first day of December sees digital asset hallways decked in holly. Festive Bitcoin finds itself in a well-lit corridor leading to $40K.
'Tis the season. December traditionally has been a strong month, especially after green-tinted closes in previous months. True, the historical trend proved inconsistent in the past two years. But a wider lens beckons.
In 2015, BTC gained 14% in the final month of the year. December of 2016 and 2017, meanwhile, brought 29.2% and 38.8% returns, respectively. In 2020, BTC soared by 47.8% in December. According to U.Today, BTC, in eight out of thirteen attempts, concluded the calendar year positively.
As of quite early this morning, BTC was $38,550 on a 2.2% gain in 24 hours. In the past 11 months, the largest crypto has soared 130%. At about 8 a.m. (EST), we checked in on BTC again. It was $38,655.
"Bitcoin's chances of hitting $40,000 are top of mind," Bloomberg said, referencing a potent elixir of rate-cut hopes and spot ETF-approval optimism.
Among Big Ten coins, Dogecoin enjoyed the biggest climb over the past week. DOGE rose 8% to $0.0838 since last Friday, per CoinGecko.
What's down
Options Barometer Falls, Bullishly So
Turning to crypto options data, specifically looking at the ratio between put contracts (bearish) and calls (bullish), we're very much intrigued.
Deribit, an options exchange, tracks these numbers. GreeksLive, options analysts, crunches them.
"The put-call ratio is low, suggesting that the main trades this week have been centered on calls," GreeksLive said.
The ratio on Deribit has been fluctuating between 0.4 and 0.5 this year. Open interest has been increasing lately.
Today's put-call ratio has fallen to 0.43, according to The Block. The ratio was 0.5 just last week.
What's next
Fed Fireside Chat Could Be Kindling For A Rally
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak publicly later today. Twice, actually; late this morning, the central banker-in-chief will sit down for a fireside chat at Spelman College in Atlanta. A couple of hours later, Powell will participate in a roundtable discussion at Spelman.
The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be held December 12-13. Conventional wisdom expects the central bank to hold rates steady at 5.25%-5.50%. The market is pricing in/betting on rate cuts to begin in the spring of 2024. Wagers on a Fed pivot already have led the U.S. dollar to start falling.
Today represents a briefly open slat in the blinds behind the shutters, a peephole from which Powell could conceivably tip his hand but, really, what could possibly spring forth from Powell's lips – maybe some deftly coded phrases suggesting that policymakers are ready to declare the end of rate increases? Don't hold your breath.
"Fed Chair Powell is likely to reiterate the need for tighter financial conditions, SeekingAlpha said. "And possibly put another hike on the table."
However, a crypto bull, Michael Novogratz, founder of Galaxy Digital, views the worm as having turned or on the verge of it.
The central bank could shift from its hawkish stance to a dovish one by mid-2024; and if this happens, the billionaire told Bloomberg, it will release "animal spirits."
Arthur Hayes, former BitMex honcho turned acid-tongued pundit, last night posted his holiday wishes on the X platform, chiding "JAYPOW" to cut rates and "send BTC 2 Da Moon!"
