Fear rampant

Bitcoin defended $93,000 Sunday night with the largest digital asset snapping back above $95,000, at least briefly, as of early Monday. Fear stalks a market that is awash in liquidations while macro headwinds keep howling — and so crestfallen, evicted BTC gathered what it could and found a caravan park in which to regroup. As of 8:04 a.m. (EST), BTC was $95,247, according to CoinGecko. The low ebb of the past 24 hours was $93,029, per CoinGecko. BTC is down 11% in the past seven days.

Meanwhile, a couple of big, popular, ETF-tied altcoins are green on a 24-hour time frame. XRP and SOL each gained 1% since this time yesterday.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were trending green to start the week following a dicey stretch of sessions for technology names. Although, in the end, the tech-laden Nasdaq index only fell 0.5% last week. And despite a steep decline last Thursday, the S&P actually ended the week with a small gain. The iconic blue-chip index has gained 14.5% YTD versus barely a 1% YTD return for BTC.

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum touched multi-month lows over the weekend in a sobering affirmation of a downward trend with “a series of lower highs and lower lows present across several timeframes,” CoinDesk said.

Crypto sold off at the end of last week. A dearth of liquidity was a big factor. Shifting rate cut expectations and concerns about the possibility of an AI bubble also played a big part. This weekend’s tack-on selling, though less severe, reflects a market that is on edge with Nvidia set to report earnings later this week. The numbers will shed some light on whether the AI locomotive is slowing.

For BTC, its hastily strewn-together nest above $95K is proving to be a safe space but not entirely sturdy. In fact, BTC, between 8 a.m. (EST) and 9 a.m. (EST), fell to $94.2K. Do realize that it’s the $93K mark which looms as most critical at this moment. If BTC falls to $92,840, that would trigger a $62M pocket of liquidations, which, in turn, per CoinDesk, would “likely bring the price tumbling to below $88K.”

Investors anxiously await Nvidia’s earnings due on Wednesday. Stakes are high. The lofty valuations of Big Tech names are under scrutiny and so the chip designer’s results/outlook will “test faith on Wall Street that earnings will continue and that the tech sell-off is a blip,” Yahoo Finance said.

Macro considerations are obviously as always at the fore. The shutdown-delayed September employment report finally comes out on Thursday. Expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's rate cutting cycle have diminished. A rate cut in December once seemed likely if not assured. Now it’s a coin flip.

Declining expectations for looser monetary policy, historically a positive for risk assets, has helped push the Crypto Fear & Greed Index to 10/100. That score is considered "extreme fear" and represents the sentiment barometer’s lowest reading since July of 2022.

Looking at crypto futures positions, this forward-looking marketplace has found equilibrium in the wake of a turbulent drawdown that may or may not be over.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said that the Bitcoin Positioning Index, a measure of the overall directional stance of the BTC futures market, has returned to a neutral state. 

Checking CoinGlass’s average relative strength (RSI) index, it too rests in the neutral zone at 43.5/100, signaling that the crypto market, though badly scraped, isn’t technically in oversold territory just yet.