Pressure eases

Total crypto assets have returned above $3 trillion after a gain of 1.3% in the past 24 hours. As of Tuesday at 8:09 a.m. (EST), Bitcoin remained comfortably plumb, positioned above $87,000, according to CoinGecko. Yesterday, however, was a different story. BTC fell to $83K after rumblings that Strategy, owing to its BTC-heavy business model, as well as some other like-minded companies, potentially could be ghosted by a major indexer, MSCI.

Meanwhile, futures tied to U.S. equity indices (Dow, S&P, Nasdaq) were slightly higher this morning. This follows a sagging stock session on Monday.

Most cryptos are mildly green at the moment.

Among the heavyweights, Cardano (ADA) has recorded one of the more impressive gains. The per-coin spot price of ADA, which is listed as CoinGecko’s 11th-largest digital asset, rose 4.6% in the past day. ADA is now on the cusp of 40 cents. ADA spent most of this past summer and fall ranging between $0.80-$0.90. NewsBTC reports today of Cardano’s newly unveiled $30M ADA liquidity program for the cultivation of activity within the realms of stablecoins and cross-chain bridges.

Looking around the Top 100, there are coins that are solidly green on the day but still sorely red on the week. DeFi stalwarts UNI and DOT fit this bill. The Trump family DeFi concern, World Liberty Financial, has seen its WLFI token green up over a 24-hour time period yet it remains flat on the week.

A handful of coins, per CoinGecko, are bathed in momentum, green across 24-hour and 7-day stretches. In this camp we find PUMP, QNT and KAS.

The risk-asset sell-off has abated, Bloomberg asserted earlier today, noting how the halt to Bitcoin’s slide supports the idea that, in 24 hours, somehow a distinct sentiment shift has occurred. Okay, sure. But don’t tell that to XRP or Solana.

Considered among the cream of the altcoin crop, the two tokens are redder than most of their Big Ten cohorts on a weekly basis. 

The relative performance rut is happening even as U.S.-listed ETFs connected with XRP and Solana have recorded several consecutive weeks of net cumulative inflows. And yet the tokens appear saggy.

Consider that Ethereum, second-largest digital asset, has shed 3% since last Tuesday. Solana’s native SOL lost 4% in that span. XRP got gouged by 8%. By contrast, biggest-coin-of-all Bitcoin has ceased sliding by way of a perfectly bland 0.0% return on the week, as of Tuesday at 8:55 a.m. (EST).

Everybody’s talking at us but we can’t hear a word they’re saying — where are these catalysts? And, if they do exist, can they lead to a year-end crypto rally?

One week from tomorrow, the Federal Reserve very likely could play Santa Claus and announce an interest rate cut. Markets are pricing in a mere 12% chance that the Fed does not cut. 

Some traders are increasingly focused on a separate structural issue: MSCI’s pending decision whether its indices should exclude companies whose balance sheets are heavily concentrated in Bitcoin, CoinDesk said. The issue impacts a slew of companies, including Strategy, Marathon, Riot, Metaplanet, and American Bitcoin. Collectively, Michael Saylor’s Strategy, alongside what amounts to a still-growing cadre of unapologetic copycats, together hold more than $137B BTC, or about 5% of all existing coins. 

What the market seemed to be doing yesterday — as BTC tumbled to $83K — was perhaps pricing in the possibility of forced dumping on the part of MSCI index funds, were it to be the case that any of these BTC-centric companies wind up getting reclassified and shown the door.

“Any rule change automatically triggers a review of the index funds' holdings,” Farzam Ehsani, CEO of crypto exchange VALR, told CoinDesk, “potentially leading to forced sell-offs of these [BTC-related] companies’ shares.”