Bumpy ride tests nerves

Ukraine's valiant stand against Russia’s outsized military has stunned defense experts who nevertheless remain convinced that violence will escalate, the conflict will drag out and an already staggering humanitarian crisis will worsen.

Worst fears on Wall Street are coming true with skyrocketing commodities prices, exacerbating inflation, sparking fears of a growth slowdown or possibly a recession. U.S. stocks got hammered Monday, the worst trading session in 16 months.

Earlier today, however, European stocks shot higher.

At just south of $39K, Bitcoin over 24 hours was fairly flat (-0.4%).

Meanwhile, turmoil is rocking the nickel market. Prices on the London Metal Exchange earlier today doubled to a record high above $100,000 a metric ton, causing trading to be halted (CNBC).

Russia is the world’s third-largest producer of nickel, a key component in the lithium-ion batteries that run electric vehicles.

“It is a very dangerous market right now," Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen said.

Where does all of this end? Analysts at the Scowcroft Center have put forth their “rosiest” possible scenario. In it, Ukraine sees its own defensive capabilities bolstered by NATO, allowing its military and civilian resistance to overcome the odds and “grind Moscow’s advance to a halt.”

Last week it briefly looked like "crypto's moment" had come. That’s all but faded from memory with world markets convulsing amidst fresh fears/uncertainties/doubts stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war, causing costs of food and fuel to spiral higher. Volatility reigns. Russia spigot turnoff/$300 per barrel oil scenarios are being bandied about. There's no apparent digital safe haven.

BTC, as of Tuesday at 8:25 a.m. (EST), was flat on the day but down 10% over a seven-day period. Ethereum, during that span, is down 12%.

“A slew of bad news, an uncertain macro environment, and a broader cooling off of the crypto market have left Bitcoin and Ethereum in the dumps,” Decrypt said.

XRP went red on the day, and on the week. The sixth-largest crypto was about $0.72 after slipping 2% Monday into Tuesday following a short-lived mini-spike. The pop in the price of the coin closely associated with Ripple Labs had seemed to reflect a possible global money transfer re-think with banking system interplay under greater scrutiny in a world at economic war with Russia.

Additionally, there is also now a growing sense that, maybe, there may be some end in sight with respect to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's lawsuit against Ripple, accused of unlawfully issuing a security, a charge Ripple lawyers vehemently dispute, insisting XRP isn't a security.

The notion that the SEC may be ready to throw in the towel got floated in an article by U.Today's Tomiwabold Olajide, citing Fox Business reporter/producer Eleanor Terrett, quoting an anonymous source, relaying a sentiment expressed by Commissioner Hester "Crypto Mom" Peirce who apparently harbors concerns the agency might not be on track to achieve its desired outcome.

Jeremy Hogan, an XRP-friendly attorney who is following the proceedings as closely as anybody, has said he believes fresh settlement talks might take place as soon as next month.

Meanwhile, some pending ruling on some convoluted legal matter that may or may not turn the momentum for one side versus the other (but might) is supposedly coming at some point.

Anti-money-laundering authorities are on guard for rich Russians trying to digitally dodge international sanctions connected with the war in Ukraine.

Yesterday, the Financial Crime Enforcement Network (FinCEN) put out an alert, warning financial institutions to be on the lookout for "convertible virtual currencies." FinCEN, lording over a financial landscape awash in an alphabet soup of handy abbreviations, also threw down their marker as to lexicon preferences – they're going with "CVC" – as in "CVC flows" needing to be watched closely by "CVC exchangers."

"Prompt reporting of suspicious activity contributes to national security and the efforts to support Ukraine and its people," said the arm of the U.S. Treasury charged with maintaining general standards for identifying money laundering risks and reporting them (The Block).

Although, conceded Him Das, acting director of FinCEN, in a statement, "we have not seen widespread evasion of our sanctions using methods such as cryptocurrency."