Crypto recovers momentarily

Crypto's trademark volatility ratcheted up to wartime shock and awe mode replete with a wicked sell-off and now a stark recovery. At least that’s the case thus far on this grey, snowy morning, the last Friday of February. Another grimly surreal year grinds on. 

Yesterday, Russia invaded Ukraine. Stock and crypto markets sold off. Roughly $150 billion worth of digital asset value, erased. A seemingly tenuous rebound got underway today. Reverberations from the conflict zones are being felt in energy and grain markets, already subject to inflation, and as risk/hedge scenarios crowd dueling hemispheres of the speculator hive mind.

According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin over 24 hours was trading 10% higher at $38,930 as of 7:40 a.m. (EST).

BTC fell to as low as about $34,340 yesterday as experts gamed out a conflict that everyone and still no one saw coming.

The Friday rebound saw double-digit percentage gains turned in by Ethereum and XRP. Meanwhile, Cardano, Terra and Solana all snapped back impressively.

Global stocks declined sharply yesterday morning and then rallied in the afternoon. By the look of things in equity futures – volatility isn't letting up.

Stock futures were in decline as of 8 a.m. (EST) Friday morning as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to frighten and confound a weary world.

Traumatized markets sold off steeply in the early part of Thursday amidst mounting media coverage of military escalations coming by land, air and sea. Some of the reports contained the word “Chernobyl.”

The S&P 500 caved by as much as 2.6% during the first part of the U.S. trading session but ultimately closed up 1.5% higher.

If sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin, personally, are not yet being put on the table, it is likely for the purpose of maintaining a sliver of a shred of hope for some last-second diplomatic save.

Turning to the realistic odds of whether BTC continues its recovery, there's a definite chance, sure, at least based on a few key technical metrics. The one-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 42 (below the midway but not too far down) glows soothingly neutral. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), likewise, holds below the midline, signaling receding bearish momentum (CoinGape).

Despite the ongoing turmoil, BTC would seem to have a solid floor of support at $30K, according to Alex Mashinsky, the CEO of Celsius Network (Finbold).

The knee-jerk take making the rounds puts forth the notion that Russia can easily evade economic sanctions – thanks to crypto.

A more measured analysis came forth from some crypto-centric media outlets, citing experts.

On the one hand, yes, as with the traditional financial system, “Russia can leverage cryptocurrency to evade the sanctions that are being put in place," Chainalysis' Caroline Malcolm told Decrypt.

But, Malcom added, crypto was in no way a silver bullet.

Actually, crypto is likely not an effective workaround to sanctions put in place against Putin's government, according to legal and blockchain experts interviewed by CoinDesk. Autocratic regimes as it turns out really aren't the best fit for decentralized assets, experts said.

Meanwhile, Chainalysis had not yet seen any unusual activity from Russian crypto exchanges over the last few days.