Bracing for more volatility

It may mean a double-digit downward spiral, or a hair-raising push toward new heights; or both – or some other gut-wrenching Bitcoin undulation pattern no one has yet bothered to even contemplate.

But some experts are in agreement: The next few days could be bumpy. Traders will build risk-on/off positions around Fed comments tomorrow (Wednesday).

As of Tuesday, at 6:40 a.m. (EST), spot BTC had given up a week's worth of gains as it slid to around $66,500, down 4% in 24 hours. A green Monday dissipated into a crimson-tinged Tuesday amidst reports of U.S. government-linked wallets moving $2 billion worth of coins connected with the Silk Road seizure, said CoinDesk, citing Arkham, a firm that has been tracking the digital moves of the U.S. Marshall’s Service.

With digital markets breaking free from a bullish holding area, Solana slinked into the underbrush overnight but is no fugitive from greenness over one week (+1.6%).

Among the Big Ten, XRP seems singularly sprung, possibly goosed by a general shift in regulatory tone and amplified speculation that related Ripple-SEC legal drama is finally on the verge of being over (if reported rumors about supposed end-game settlement talks are to be believed).

XRP, the sixth-largest token, gained 2.5% in the past day. That was as of 7:10 a.m. (EST).

We do sense something is happening. Just between 5:30 a.m. (EST) and 6:45 a.m. (EST), XRP shot from $0.5986 to $0.6338, per CoinGecko.

"It's going to be an extremely volatile week," one analyst told CoinDesk. "I will not be surprised if BTC has another 10% drop/pump."

The $70,000 mark was directly in Bitcoin's sight yesterday as we were finishing early morning chart-scouring chores.

A $66K handle, suddenly back in play, is that possible? Sure, and it underscores the kind of nauseating turbulence for which crypto markets are so well-known. The total market cap of all cryptos stands at $2.5 trillion, down 3.5% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko.

One of the steepest declines (-7.3%) was turned by JUP, the native asset of Jupiter, the Solana-based swap aggregator that reached a record high of $2 this past January.

After the death of Serum, owing to FTX's collapse, Jupiter ascended to become the leading DEX on Solana.

JUP was announced in November of 2023. A couple months later came one of the biggest airdrops in history with $700M worth of tokens distributed to about one million wallets.

During the first part of this year, JUP fought to stay above $1.75 only to pick a battle with $1.50 instead. It didn't win. But a new struggle emerged in early June – maintaining the $1 mark. Give this one some time. Early this month, JUP sank to a recent low of $0.69. JUP as of today stands at $1.08. It was $1.12 a couple of days ago.

Former President Donald Trump's pro-crypto remarks Saturday in Nashville required a grain of salt if not an entire shaker.

Writing in Cointelegraph, Michael Brescia, CEO of Cerus Markets, pointed to Trump's penchant for always reverting to transactional behavior – and to the reality of large financial institutions maintaining a stranglehold on Republican senators.

"Anyone banking on Trump to save crypto should take a long hard look at the receipts," Brescia writes, referencing in part a proposal that was put forth during the Trump administration and which would require crypto firms to disclose the identities of DeFi platform users as part of financial system policing.

"Remember that he is not obligated to keep a single promise to the Winklevoss twins, Michael Saylor or Cathie Wood," says Brescia, a former forex trader, referring to some of the crypto sector's best-known and powerful supporters.

In a recent interview, another prominent crypto cheerleader, Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz, predicts investors will be flocking to crypto as a hedge against a diminished greenback should the U.S. debt situation spiral into a "just print more money" Catch-22 scenario to keep up with servicing costs. Neither Republicans nor Democrats will take this problem on, he said.

Should Trump, with the blockchain industry's help, succeed in his bid to win a second term, the populist in him likely would put a tax cut on the front-burner – even as federal government spending continues to soar to levels so unsustainable it threatens to debase the dollar.

The government's outstanding borrowing: $35 trillion. Equally eyebrow-raising is the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio: 122%.

Rich Rosenblum, co-founder of trading firm GSR, told Decrypt that “much of the world has ballooning debt and is arguably in a debt trap."

“Why I’m so optimistic about Bitcoin is really unfortunate," Galaxy's Novogratz says. "I’d rather our government deal with the crappy finances so we don’t bankrupt our grandkids, because, mark my freaking words, we are bankrupting this country."