Shelter in place

Stepping lively into the role of safe-haven asset, Bitcoin reached nearly $72,000 as dawn broke Wednesday on the East Coast and the war in the Middle East entered its fifth day.

Energy crisis fears grow. Oil was spiking yesterday and earlier today on supply concerns. Per-barrel crude prices pulled back somewhat as the morning rolled on.

Gold and silver also shot higher after a gut-wrenching Tuesday for the U.S. stock market which for a few fraught intraday hours behaved like it was March of 2020. 

Now risk suddenly, puzzlingly, seems back on although one can sense caution in the air. Still, European stocks advanced in the Wednesday session. U.S. stock futures were rallying throughout the pre-market hours. Then the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each shaded green after the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. (EST). An encouraging private payroll report had just landed. 

At the same time, seemingly, a lot of de-risking continues. The dollar is in demand. Treasury yields have gone higher. 

All the main crypto categories were in the green entering this morning save for one — memecoins. Perhaps deemed decidedly unserious in a time of global unrest, the CoinGecko meme bucket (5,775 of them) collectively declined 1.7% over the past 24 hours. The total cap for the meme market now stands at $32.9 billion. But wait … most of the biggest members of this supposedly superfluous club, coins such as DOGE, SHIB, PEPE and BONK, are all in the green today. TRUMP, sixth-biggest memecoin, is down but only by 1%. 

Scroll down the chart a little more and the dead-weight culprit rattles forth loud and clear — ah, it’s PIPPIN, which in the past day has lost more than one-third of its value. It’s a Solana-run, AI-agent-tied memecoin that is said to meld meme culture with AI — its symbol is a digital, scalable vector (SVG) unicorn drawing — and it is also considered to be exceptionally volatile, owing to its highly concentrated supply. 

PIPPIN’s ATH of $0.8972 came last Thursday, according to CoinGecko. It has since lost 64%. With a market cap of $320 million, PIPPIN remains the 128th-largest token.

Bitcoin struck $71,800 today at approximately 5 a.m. (EST). The $72K threshold then faded from view, only to reappear a few hours later. It's a mark that hasn’t been hit since early February.

Altcoins took their cue and grabbed some of the spotlight. 

“After almost a month of consolidation, the altcoin market is beginning to show signs of strength,” CoinDesk said.

Among the greenest coins (in the Top 200) as of Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. (EST), per CoinGecko, were: SOL (+6%); SKY (+7%); REAL (+8%); B (+9%); AERO (+10%); SPX (+15%) and KITE (+21%).

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has ticked higher relative to recent lows, indicating a hint of optimism returning to the fore. The popular sentiment barometer hit a multi-year low of 5/100 (“extreme fear”) in February. Now it’s at 19/100, on the verge of just plain “fear.”

A lion’s share of the market’s attention obviously will be devoured by the war, and its impact on energy prices, and by inflation in general, producing, potentially, a new brain teaser for the Fed. Heaps of attention also will still be focused on AI, and on the software sector, as well as on ominous cracks in the private credit market. Other trends to be monitored include dollar strength and emerging markets weakness — and, no doubt, everyone'll still fixate on the price of Bitcoin and whether it can surpass $72K.

Said Decrypt: “The sustainability of [BTC’s] ascent hinges on the broader liquidity environment and geopolitical risks.”

Analysts at brokerage firm K33, meanwhile, are planting a flag in the camp that says BTC is too legit to quit.

After suffering six straight weekly declines and five straight negative months, BTC’s relative strength index (RSI) recently fell (on a weekly basis) to 26.84, its third-lowest reading ever, K33 noted, per The Block.

Pointing to persistent pessimism and defensive derivatives positioning, K33’s research chief, Vetle Lunde, said: "If you want to be wrong, follow the masses.”